Drone manufacturers in Poland have detailed their advancements in creating autonomous drones capable of operating without GPS or direct human control.
On a typical Monday afternoon in a suburban area of northern Warsaw, three men park their car in an open field, discreetly avoiding the eyes of nearby residents. They set up computers on the trunk of their car, appearing as if they are preparing for a music event. However, they are actually testing Bavovna, an AI-driven navigation system for UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) designed to function in GNSS-denied environments and under electronic warfare conditions.
The Bavovna system, about the size of a lunchbox, is installed on an Aurelia X6 MAX drone (utilized by NATO) and is intended to enable the drone to complete missions autonomously. “What we’ll do today is fly a typical SIGINT [signals intelligence] mission, essentially performing reconnaissance of the radio-emitting environment,” Dmytro Chernetchenko, the creator of Bavovna, explains to BIRN.
In combat scenarios, this means the drone would locate enemy radars, electronic warfare tools, surface-to-air missile units, communication units, or drone stations, allowing for strategic defensive actions or attacks. The remarkable aspect of today’s test flight is that with Bavovna, the drone will complete its mission independently after takeoff, with no further human input.
“The Bavovna is a multisensory device that uses data from its inertial navigation system, barometer, flowmeter, compass data, and optical flow,” Chernetchenko explains. Unlike other systems being tested in Ukraine, Bavovna does not depend on maps or ground photos, which can quickly become outdated.
“The data it uses is extensive,” Chernetchenko adds. “There are different baselines for every drone type, making it very specific. That’s why we need to rely on artificial intelligence.” The device requires 100 hours of flight on each new type of UAV to learn how to navigate each specific platform. The accuracy achieved after 100 hours of flight on the Aurelia drone is over 99 percent.
As the Aurelia lands successfully, Eugene Nayshtetik, head of Radio Bird, the aerial and SIGINT systems company he founded in Poland two years ago, lights up a cigar and remarks, “Russian jamming is not my problem,” as he watches the drone land. Ukraine initially surprised Russia with its innovative use of drones, but Russia’s swift advancements in electronic warfare have posed significant challenges. Developing drones that are resistant to jamming is crucial for both sides and could significantly impact the war’s outcome.
“This is a global race to achieve non-GNSS navigation,” Nayshtetik states. He notes that autonomous drones could also benefit civilian applications: “Humanity has become very dependent on satellite navigation, which is very fragile.” “If we wake up one morning without satellite navigation, many aspects of our lives will be affected: from emergency services to air travel to construction,” Nayshtetik warns, noting that such a scenario is plausible.
This year, the US administration warned that Russia is nearing the capability to deploy a nuclear weapon in space. Nayshtetik, who fought in the Battle for Kyiv in 2022, believes the Russians could start destroying satellites at any moment.
Achieving full autonomy
Among the drones utilized by the Ukrainian military capable of flying without GPS, the FlyEye, developed by the Polish company WB Group, stands out. Regimiusz Wilk, a representative of WB Group, informs BIRN that Ukraine purchases more than half of the company’s production, which totals around 6,000 drones annually – a figure that could double if Poland is drawn into the conflict.
The FlyEye is a 12-kilogram moto-glider UAV that can be stored in two backpacks and hand-launched, making it easy to use. It is also “jam-proof” and can operate in GPS-denied environments, Wilk says. “It’s challenging for a radar to detect the FlyEye, not only because of its size but also because it glides most of the time, using the electric engine only for takeoff and altitude changes,” Wilk explains. “Radar signals need to hit something moving to be effective.”
To navigate without satellites, WB Group drones use a “combination of AI, optical sensors, radio links, and other technologies”, Wilk states, declining to provide more specifics. As proof of its resilience against Russian electronic warfare, Wilk notes that the FlyEye has the highest survivability rate among drones used by Ukraine.
Larger drones, which played a significant role early in the war, have largely been phased out due to their high radar visibility, making them easy targets. This is why the US has refrained from sending large, expensive military drones to Ukraine, which now relies on smaller, more expendable machines.
When asked about achieving “full autonomy,” Wilk asserts that WB Group drones are fully autonomous until the point of attack. “There is always a human in the loop,” adhering to European standards, he says. “This isn’t a technical issue but a matter of international law,” he explains, highlighting the ethical implications and risks of allowing AI to make targeting decisions.
The new drone race
Samuel Bendett, a military technology expert at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), tells BIRN that while Ukraine has hinted at fully autonomous drones, achieving this on the battlefield is challenging. “A lot of this autonomy relies on data sets pre-loaded into the drone. But the complex Ukrainian battlefield, with numerous obstacles, makes it hard for drones to learn tasks that humans can intuitively handle,” he says.
The motivation to announce technological breakthroughs is high because the war is at a “technological stalemate.” “As soon as one side gains an advantage, it is quickly countered by the other,” Bendett says, adding that progress is incremental and not sufficient to decisively impact the war. “We will hear many claims about autonomy, but until we see and analyze the drones, we can’t confirm these claims,” Bendett cautions.
Regarding ethical concerns, Bendett suggests that in the heat of battle, the distinction between semi-autonomous and autonomous systems may blur, with results taking precedence. “This war drives numerous technological advancements,” Nayshtetik observes. “Since it began, we’ve felt a constant urgency in areas like radio electronic surveillance, communication, navigation, and drone development.”
Breakthroughs are occurring not only in Ukraine but also among non-state actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. “When it comes to these developments, including autonomous systems, we don’t have a definitive solution in Western civilization,” Nayshtetik concludes. “It’s a constant challenge, akin to the technological race of the Cold War.”
