Dune: Part Two is leading the 2024 box office charts by a significant margin but faces a steep climb to reach the exclusive $1 billion club. With a 92% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, this sequel to Denis Villeneuve’s 2021 adaptation of Dune has quickly become a hallmark of modern cinema, earning acclaim as a sci-fi masterpiece unparalleled since the 2023 hit “Barbenheimer.” Currently, it has amassed approximately $498 million globally.
Despite the film’s critical and commercial success, Dune: Part Two might not join the ranks of recent blockbusters like Barbie ($1.44 billion), The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($1.36 billion), and the Best Picture winner Oppenheimer ($959 million) in crossing the billion-dollar threshold. It is set to easily surpass $500 million worldwide, continuing to outperform other 2024 releases such as Kung Fu Panda 4, Bob Marley: One Love, The Beekeeper, and Mean Girls. However, achieving $1 billion seems to be a more formidable challenge.
Currently, only 53 films have ever crossed the $1 billion mark worldwide, with six of those reaching beyond $2 billion. James Cameron’s original Avatar (2009) still reigns supreme with $2.9 billion. Sci-fi blockbusters, especially those from the Star Wars, DC Extended Universe, or Marvel Cinematic Universe, frequently dominate the list of top earners.
Recent sci-fi films to exceed $1 billion include 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water ($2.3 billion), making it the third highest-grossing movie ever, and Jurassic World Dominion ($1 billion). In contrast, 2021’s Dune gathered around $434 million worldwide, ranking it ninth for the year, behind giants such as Spider-Man: No Way Home and No Time to Die. To stand a chance of joining the billion-dollar club, Dune: Part Two must maintain its momentum through the upcoming months.
The challenge ahead for Dune: Part Two
Although Dune: Part Two is positioned to be among 2024’s top earners, surpassing the halfway mark to $1 billion doesn’t guarantee entry into this exclusive group. With $183 million from its opening weekend globally and $205 million from domestic audiences, the sequel shows impressive initial performance. Yet, if it aims for the billion-dollar target, international audiences will play a crucial role.
For context, Jurassic World Dominion saw about 63% of its earnings from international markets. In comparison, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with $220 million, setting the stage for its $1.3 billion global tally. Despite a strong start, Dune: Part Two‘s performance is yet to match those of the highest earners.
Projecting the final tally for Dune: Part Two
Based on its current trajectory, Denis Villeneuve’s sequel is likely to finish with a worldwide gross between $725 million and $850 million. Its final position will significantly depend on its ability to sustain and expand its appeal in international markets. With 58% of its current earnings from overseas, increasing this percentage is vital for surpassing the $800 million mark. For comparison, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever showed varying domestic and international revenue splits, emphasizing the importance of a strong global presence for reaching high box office totals.
