Europe’s climate monitor announced on Tuesday that this March set a new temperature record, continuing a trend of unprecedented warmth with the past ten months each setting new historic highs. The ocean’s surface temperatures have also reached levels that experts are calling “startling.” This trend signals an urgent need for action to curb global warming, in a year already noted for its climate anomalies and increasing emissions of greenhouse gases.
Since June of the previous year, each month has surpassed previous temperature records, with March 2024 becoming the latest to do so. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), this March was 1.68 degrees Celsius warmer than the average March temperatures during the pre-industrial era of 1850-1900. Although March’s record was surpassed by just 0.1°C, it’s the ongoing pattern that raises concern, as pointed out by Samantha Burgess, C3S’s deputy director.
Regions across the globe, including parts of Africa, Greenland, South America, and Antarctica, experienced temperatures well above their usual averages last month. This continued warmth has not only set the record for the tenth month in a row but also marked the hottest 12-month period ever recorded, with temperatures averaging 1.58 °C above those of the pre-industrial era.
While this does not mean the 1.5 °C global warming limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement has been officially exceeded — since this threshold is based on longer-term averages — Burgess warns, “the reality is that we’re extraordinarily close, and already on borrowed time.” The IPCC has indicated that surpassing the 1.5C threshold is likely within the early 2030s.
The ocean temperatures have also been notably high, setting a new record in March after February’s previous high. “That’s incredibly unusual,” Burgess remarked, emphasizing the critical role oceans play in absorbing the excess heat generated by human-induced carbon pollution.
Warmer oceans lead to more moisture in the air, which in turn can cause more severe weather events, from heavy rains to strong winds. Recent events in Russia, Australia, Brazil, and France, where severe flooding and wet conditions were recorded, illustrate this impact. “We know the warmer our global atmosphere is, the more extreme events we’ll have, the worse they will be, the more intense they will be,” Burgess explained.
Despite the weakening El Nino pattern, which tends to warm the Pacific Ocean’s surface and influence global weather, Burgess notes that its effects don’t fully account for the extreme heat observed last year or the warm forecasts for upcoming months. She suggests that continued high sea surface temperatures could mean more record-breaking heat ahead.
With climate records dating back to 1940, supplemented by additional sources like ice cores and tree rings, scientists believe our current era is likely the warmest in 100,000 years. The debate among scientists now centres on whether the extreme heat fits within expected climate models or represents a new, uncharted phenomenon. Burgess notes, “Is it a phase change? Is the climate system broken? We don’t really understand yet why we have this additional heat in 23/24. We can explain most of it, but not all of it.“
As the planet faces rising levels of greenhouse gases, with 2023 seeing increases in carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, Burgess underscores the imperative for action: “Until we get to net zero, we will continue to see temperatures rise.“
