A penalty shootout was all that stood between England and European Championship glory in 2021. After a painful defeat by Italy in the final at Wembley Stadium, many wondered if the Three Lions had squandered their best chance for major tournament success. However, according to Opta’s pre-tournament projections for Euro 2024, the window of victory remains very much open for Gareth Southgate’s side this summer.
England as outright favourites
It’s rare for England to head to a major international tournament as outright favourites, but that is precisely the situation this time, according to Opta’s prediction model. Southgate’s side tops the list of projected winners with a 19.9% chance of lifting the trophy in Germany. While this news will undoubtedly be welcomed by many, it raises questions about how this conclusion was reached.
The predictive model
To achieve a comprehensive picture of potential winners, Opta’s prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw, or loss – by using betting market odds and team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model also considers opponent strength and the difficulty of each team’s path to the final, factoring in the composition of groups and seedings into the knockout stages.
Here is the table with the predicted probabilities for each country’s performance in Euro 2024:
| Country | Rank | Quarter finals | Semi finals | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1 | 70% | 48.2% | 31.3% | 19.9% |
| France | 2 | 69% | 48.1% | 30.4% | 19.1% |
| Germany | 3 | 58.4% | 36.5% | 22.4% | 12.4% |
| Spain | 4 | 59.1% | 32.3% | 18.5% | 9.6% |
| Portugal | 5 | 55.2% | 33.6% | 18% | 9.2% |
| Netherlands | 6 | 45.8% | 24.2% | 11.4% | 5.1% |
| Italy | 7 | 47.2% | 23.1% | 11.4% | 5% |
| Belgium | 8 | 48.5% | 23.4% | 10.6% | 4.7% |
| Denmark | 9 | 32.8% | 14.8% | 6% | 2.2% |
| Croatia | 10 | 34.4% | 14% | 5.7% | 2% |
| Turkey | 11 | 27.4% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Austria | 12 | 24.3% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Switzerland | 13 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Serbia | 14 | 23% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 1% |
| Scotland | 15 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 1% |
| Ukraine | 16 | 26% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 1% |
| Hungary | 17 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Poland | 18 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Czechia | 19 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 2% | 0.7% |
| Romania | 20 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Slovenia | 21 | 14.2% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Slovakia | 22 | 14.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Albania | 23 | 11.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Georgia | 24 | 8.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
While Opta’s predictor places England in the leading position, France is close behind. The team that knocked England out of the 2022 World Cup holds a 19.1% chance of winning Euro 2024. This suggests a potential showdown between the top two teams. The model estimates that both teams have almost a one-in-two chance of reaching the semi-finals, with England at 48.2% and France at 48.1%.
Germany, the host nation, rounds out the top three projected champions. Julian Nagelsmann’s side has a 12.4% chance of claiming victory on home soil. These three teams are the only ones with a better than 10% likelihood of lifting the trophy.
Beyond the top three, other strong contenders include Spain and Portugal. These five teams—England, France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal—are given a 50% or better chance of reaching at least the quarter-finals.
From a British perspective, the outlook for Scotland is less optimistic. Steve Clarke’s men face a tough challenge in Group A, one of the most evenly-matched groups in the tournament. According to the predictor, Scotland has a 58.9% chance of reaching the last 16, whether by finishing in the top two or as one of the best third-placed sides. However, with Group A favourites Germany, along with Switzerland (61%) and Hungary (59.3%), all similarly positioned to advance, the competition will be fierce.
Scotland’s journey will be challenging right from the start as their tie with hosts Germany kicks off the competition on 14 June.
As Euro 2024 approaches, England stands at the forefront of pre-tournament predictions, with a promising chance to secure their first major trophy since 1966. With strong competition from France, Germany, and other top teams, the stage is set for a thrilling tournament. Whether England can capitalize on this golden opportunity remains to be seen, but their chances look brighter than ever heading into the summer showdown.
