China is gearing up for its inaugural mission to impact an asteroid as part of its planetary defense strategy. This ambitious mission will involve one spacecraft designed to collide with the asteroid, while a second spacecraft will observe the impact to gather valuable data about the solar system’s formation.
The China National Space Administration (CNSA) has potentially identified its target: the near-Earth object (NEO) 2015 XF261, an asteroid approximately 100 feet wide (30 meters). According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) small-body database, 2015 XF261 recently passed within 31 million miles (50 million kilometers) of Earth on July 9, traveling at a speed of 26,000 mph (42,000 kph).
The Planetary Society noted that this mission represents China’s latest step in asteroid impact mission planning, reflecting the country’s growing interest in planetary defense. A recent paper in the Journal of Deep Space Exploration discusses the proposed mission targeting 2015 XF261. The study outlines the scientific objectives and mission requirements, emphasizing the importance of on-orbit verification of asteroid defense techniques.
Following the success of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in September 2022, which demonstrated that a kinetic impactor could alter the trajectory of an asteroid, China’s mission aims to build on these findings. DART’s impact on Dimorphos, a moonlet of the asteroid Didymos, successfully shifted its orbit, showcasing the potential to divert an asteroid on a collision course with Earth.
In October 2024, the European Space Agency (ESA) will launch the Hera spacecraft to further assess the impact of DART on the Didymos system, with an expected rendezvous in 2026. China’s mission plans to combine the impact and observation phases into a single mission, impacting 2015 XF261 and studying it for six months to a year post-collision.
Asteroids like 2015 XF261 are believed to be remnants from the formation of the planets around 4.6 billion years ago, offering a unique opportunity to study pristine material from the early solar system. The CNSA mission, expected to launch before 2030, will finalize its target based on the launch schedule.
In April 2024, SINA Technology reported that Wu Weiren, director of China’s Deep Space Exploration Laboratory (DSEL), indicated a launch date around 2027. The asteroid 2015 XF261 will pass within 20 million miles (32 million km) of Earth in March and May 2027, though the CNSA may need more time to reach it. A more favorable window for the mission appears in April 2029, when the asteroid will be 4.2 million miles (6.8 million km) from Earth.
Previously, CNSA had considered targeting a different asteroid, 2019 VL5, for a planetary defense test in 2025. The reasons for the shift to 2015 XF261 remain unclear, but both asteroids are roughly 100 feet (30 meters) wide.
China’s dual-spacecraft mission to impact and observe 2015 XF261 is a significant step in planetary defense, showcasing the country’s advancing capabilities in space exploration and its commitment to safeguarding Earth from potential asteroid threats.
