A recent study conducted by researchers in Germany has highlighted the potential impact of climate change on global food prices, projecting an annual increase of up to 3.2% due to rising temperatures. This escalation in food costs could significantly hinder access to nutritious and sufficient food for many people worldwide, exacerbating global food insecurity.
The study predicts that by 2035, food price inflation could rise by 0.9 to 3.2 percentage points annually due to climate change. This increase is expected to outpace general inflation rates, which are projected to climb by 0.3 to 1.2 percentage points, meaning a larger share of household incomes will be needed to afford food.
The repercussions of these changes are anticipated to be felt globally, impacting both high and low-income nations. However, countries in the global south, particularly in Africa, are expected to bear the brunt of these challenges. Africa’s vulnerability is underscored by its minimal contribution to the causes of climate change, juxtaposed with its severe impacts from it.
Their research in Ghana, specifically in the rural district of Mion in the north, provides a tangible example of how climate change-driven food price inflation could manifest. In conversations with nearly 400 residents, every individual reported experiencing food insecurity in the past year, with 99% attributing this at least in part to climate change. A significant 62% were found to be moderately or severely food insecure, with 26% facing severe food insecurity, indicating they had gone without food for an entire day.
These findings starkly contrast Ghana’s national averages and align more closely with the food insecurity levels in some of West Africa’s poorest countries, such as Togo, Burkina Faso, and Benin. A parallel study among refugees from Burkina Faso in Ghana’s upper east region revealed a unanimous experience of food insecurity, further emphasizing the severity of the situation.
The root causes of climate-related food inflation are multifaceted, involving both the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture. Higher temperatures and shifting seasons can disrupt traditional farming cycles, while increased pest and disease outbreaks, along with heat stress on infrastructure, can limit food access and affordability. These challenges not only drive up food prices but also compound food insecurity.
Moreover, the study underscores the link between knowledge of climate change and food security. In Ghana, individuals with a greater understanding of climate issues were more likely to be food secure, despite many lacking formal education. This suggests that awareness and adaptive practices can mitigate some of the adverse effects of climate change on food security.
At the international level, recognition of the intertwining issues of climate change and food security has led to action. During COP28, 134 countries committed to integrating food systems into their climate strategies, aiming to ensure food availability in the face of climate challenges.
The researchers advocate for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate these impacts and suggest that diversifying economies could protect communities dependent on agriculture. Additionally, they call for government interventions to offer financial and nutritional support to those most vulnerable to the cycle of poverty exacerbated by inflation and reduced food accessibility.
