In a scenario reminiscent of science fiction, the early stages of a potential conflict between China and the US might unfold with the deployment of thousands of drones in a coordinated swarm over China, tasked with gathering targeting information for US heavy weapons.
This vision was outlined in a document by the RAND Corporation, an American think tank, suggesting that autonomous drones could play a crucial role in future warfare by using artificial intelligence (AI) to identify targets for precision-guided missile strikes.
Although speculative and not an official part of US military strategy, this concept offers a glimpse into a future of warfare that is also being considered by other nations, including China, Israel, and European countries. These nations are exploring the transformative potential of drone swarms in military conflicts.
Drone swarm technology, inspired by natural phenomena such as bird flocks and fish schools, enables coordinated movements over large areas, enhancing surveillance capabilities and potentially acting as a powerful weapon in coordinated attacks. The most effective application of drone swarms, however, is still under exploration.
“Drone swarms could revolutionize a wide spectrum of military operations, from detecting submarines to destroying tanks and neutralizing air defences,” says Zak Kallenborn, an expert in drone and unconventional weapons technology. Affiliated with Looking Glass USA and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Kallenborn highlights the immense potential of drone swarms, despite uncertainties about their best applications.
The military significance of drone swarms has prompted experts to investigate countermeasures against their capabilities.
The conflict in Ukraine has significantly advanced the use of drones in warfare. Drones have been employed for various purposes, including surveillance, attacks, and even facilitating the surrender of enemy forces, showcasing their value in modern conflict. This development has led US military planners to study Ukraine’s use of drones for insights into the future of warfare.
According to David Ochmanek of the RAND Corporation, the Ukraine conflict provides rare and invaluable lessons for drone warfare. Initially thought to be vulnerable and thus limited to conflicts between less technologically advanced nations, drones have proven to be a critical asset in modern warfare, likely to be used on a much larger scale and with greater autonomy in future conflicts involving major powers.
In the hypothetical early hours of a conflict with a power like China, the US might employ drone swarms to quickly gain strategic advantage, aiming to identify and neutralize key targets promptly. This approach counters China’s preparation, which has been informed by observing US military tactics in past conflicts.
Despite the potential ethical concerns about autonomous “killer robots,” the debate continues regarding the role of drones in future warfare. While some advocate for restrictions on drones capable of making autonomous targeting decisions, others emphasize the importance of keeping humans in the decision-making loop to prevent errors that could lead to unintended consequences.
As defence strategies evolve, research into countering drone swarms includes exploring lasers, microwaves, and even counter-swarms. Yet, no definitive solution has been found, indicating that drone swarms will likely play a significant role in shaping the future of military engagement.
